Statistical Postprocessing of Ensemble Forecasts

Statistical Postprocessing of Ensemble Forecasts brings together chapters contributed by international subject-matter experts describing the current state of the art in the statistical postprocessing of ensemble forecasts. The book illustrates the use of these methods in several important applications including weather, hydrological and climate forecasts, and renewable energy forecasting. After an introductory section on ensemble forecasts and prediction systems, the second section of the book is devoted to exposition of the methods available for statistical postprocessing of ensemble forecasts: univariate and multivariate ensemble postprocessing are first reviewed by Wilks (Chapters 3), then Schefzik and Möller (Chapter 4), and the more specialized perspective necessary for postprocessing forecasts for extremes is presented by Friederichs, Wahl, and Buschow (Chapter 5). The second section concludes with a discussion of forecast verification methods devised specifically for evaluation of ensemble forecasts (Chapter 6 by Thorarinsdottir and Schuhen). The third section of this book is devoted to applications of ensemble postprocessing. Practical aspects of ensemble postprocessing are first detailed in Chapter 7 (Hamill), including an extended and illustrative case study. Chapters 8 (Hemri), 9 (Pinson and Messner), and 10 (Van Schaeybroeck and Vannitsem) discuss ensemble postprocessing specifically for hydrological applications, postprocessing in support of renewable energy applications, and postprocessing of long-range forecasts from months to decades. Finally, Chapter 11 (Messner) provides a guide to the ensemble-postprocessing software available in the R programming language, which should greatly help readers implement many of the ideas presented in this book. Edited by three experts with strong and complementary expertise in statistical postprocessing of ensemble forecasts, this book assesses the new and rapidly developing field of ensemble forecast postprocessing as an extension of the use of statistical corrections to traditional deterministic forecasts. Statistical Postprocessing of Ensemble Forecasts is an essential resource for researchers, operational practitioners, and students in weather, seasonal, and climate forecasting, as well as users of such forecasts in fields involving renewable energy, conventional energy, hydrology, environmental engineering, and agriculture. Consolidates, for the first time, the methodologies and applications of ensemble forecasts in one succinct place Provides real-world examples of methods used to formulate forecasts Presents the tools needed to make the best use of multiple model forecasts in a timely and efficient manner

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  • Author : Stéphane Vannitsem
  • Publisher : Elsevier
  • Pages : 362 pages
  • ISBN : 012812248X
  • Rating : 4/5 from 21 reviews
CLICK HERE TO GET THIS BOOKStatistical Postprocessing of Ensemble Forecasts

Statistical Postprocessing of Ensemble Forecasts

Statistical Postprocessing of Ensemble Forecasts
  • Author : Stéphane Vannitsem,Daniel S. Wilks,Jakob Messner
  • Publisher : Elsevier
  • Release : 17 May 2018
GET THIS BOOKStatistical Postprocessing of Ensemble Forecasts

Statistical Postprocessing of Ensemble Forecasts brings together chapters contributed by international subject-matter experts describing the current state of the art in the statistical postprocessing of ensemble forecasts. The book illustrates the use of these methods in several important applications including weather, hydrological and climate forecasts, and renewable energy forecasting. After an introductory section on ensemble forecasts and prediction systems, the second section of the book is devoted to exposition of the methods available for statistical postprocessing of ensemble forecasts: univariate

Statistical Methods in the Atmospheric Sciences

Statistical Methods in the Atmospheric Sciences
  • Author : Daniel S. Wilks
  • Publisher : Academic Press
  • Release : 04 July 2011
GET THIS BOOKStatistical Methods in the Atmospheric Sciences

Statistical Methods in the Atmospheric Sciences, Third Edition, explains the latest statistical methods used to describe, analyze, test, and forecast atmospheric data. This revised and expanded text is intended to help students understand and communicate what their data sets have to say, or to make sense of the scientific literature in meteorology, climatology, and related disciplines. In this new edition, what was a single chapter on multivariate statistics has been expanded to a full six chapters on this important topic.

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  • Author : Qingyun Duan,Florian Pappenberger,Jutta Thielen,Hannah L. Cloke,John Schaake
  • Publisher : Unknown Publisher
  • Release : 24 January 2022
GET THIS BOOKHandbook of Hydrometeorological Ensemble Forecasting

" . . . This handbook offers unrivalled coverage of today's cutting-edge techniques in flood and weather prediction. The ensemble technique, which generates multiple forecasts from differing initial parameters, is a high-profile research target with the potential to enhance the accuracy of forecasting and reduce the loss of life and damage to property caused by riverine floods, violent weather systems, and longer-term weather problems such as droughts" -- publisher.

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  • Author : National Research Council,Division on Earth and Life Studies,Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate,Committee on Assessment of Intraseasonal to Interannual Climate Prediction and Predictability
  • Publisher : National Academies Press
  • Release : 08 September 2010
GET THIS BOOKAssessment of Intraseasonal to Interannual Climate Prediction and Predictability

More accurate forecasts of climate conditions over time periods of weeks to a few years could help people plan agricultural activities, mitigate drought, and manage energy resources, amongst other activities; however, current forecast systems have limited ability on these time- scales. Models for such climate forecasts must take into account complex interactions among the ocean, atmosphere, and land surface. Such processes can be difficult to represent realistically. To improve the quality of forecasts, this book makes recommendations about the development

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  • Author : Andrew Robertson,Frederic Vitart
  • Publisher : Elsevier
  • Release : 19 October 2018
GET THIS BOOKSub-seasonal to Seasonal Prediction

The Gap Between Weather and Climate Forecasting: Sub-seasonal to Seasonal Prediction is an ideal reference for researchers and practitioners across the range of disciplines involved in the science, modeling, forecasting and application of this new frontier in sub-seasonal to seasonal (S2S) prediction. It provides an accessible, yet rigorous, introduction to the scientific principles and sources of predictability through the unique challenges of numerical simulation and forecasting with state-of-science modeling codes and supercomputers. Additional coverage includes the prospects for developing

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  • Author : Ian T. Jolliffe,David B. Stephenson
  • Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
  • Release : 01 August 2003
GET THIS BOOKForecast Verification

This handy reference introduces the subject of forecast verification and provides a review of the basic concepts, discussing different types of data that may be forecast. Each chapter covers a different type of predicted quantity (predictand), then looks at some of the relationships between economic value and skill scores, before moving on to review the key concepts and summarise aspects of forecast verification that receive the most attention in other disciplines. The book concludes with a discussion on the most

Next Generation Earth System Prediction

Next Generation Earth System Prediction
  • Author : National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine,Division on Earth and Life Studies,Ocean Studies Board,Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate,Committee on Developing a U.S. Research Agenda to Advance Subseasonal to Seasonal Forecasting
  • Publisher : National Academies Press
  • Release : 22 August 2016
GET THIS BOOKNext Generation Earth System Prediction

As the nation's economic activities, security concerns, and stewardship of natural resources become increasingly complex and globally interrelated, they become ever more sensitive to adverse impacts from weather, climate, and other natural phenomena. For several decades, forecasts with lead times of a few days for weather and other environmental phenomena have yielded valuable information to improve decision-making across all sectors of society. Developing the capability to forecast environmental conditions and disruptive events several weeks and months in advance could dramatically

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  • Author : Kevin Sene
  • Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
  • Release : 12 December 2009
GET THIS BOOKHydrometeorology

This book describes recent developments in hydrometeorological forecasting techniques for a range of timescales, from short term to seasonal and longer terms. It conveniently brings together both meteorological and hydrological aspects in a single volume.

Combining Spatial Statistical and Ensemble Information in Probabilistic Weather Forecasts

Combining Spatial Statistical and Ensemble Information in Probabilistic Weather Forecasts
  • Author : Anonim
  • Publisher : Unknown Publisher
  • Release : 24 January 2022
GET THIS BOOKCombining Spatial Statistical and Ensemble Information in Probabilistic Weather Forecasts

Forecast ensembles typically show a spread-skill relationship, but they are also often underdispersive, and therefore uncalibrated. Bayesian model averaging (BMA) is a statistical postprocessing method for forecast ensembles that generates calibrated probabilistic forecast products for weather quantities at individual sites. This paper introduces the Spatial BMA technique, which combines BMA and the geostatistical output perturbation (GOP) method, and extends BMA to generate calibrated probabilistic forecasts of whole weather fields simultaneously, rather than just weather events at individual locations. At any

Ensemble Forecasting Applied to Power Systems

Ensemble Forecasting Applied to Power Systems
  • Author : Antonio Bracale,Pasquale De Falco
  • Publisher : MDPI
  • Release : 10 March 2020
GET THIS BOOKEnsemble Forecasting Applied to Power Systems

Modern power systems are affected by many sources of uncertainty, driven by the spread of renewable generation, by the development of liberalized energy market systems and by the intrinsic random behavior of the final energy customers. Forecasting is, therefore, a crucial task in planning and managing modern power systems at any level: from transmission to distribution networks, and in also the new context of smart grids. Recent trends suggest the suitability of ensemble approaches in order to increase the versatility

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  • Author : Pallav Ray,Yuanzhi Zhang
  • Publisher : BoD – Books on Demand
  • Release : 22 May 2013
GET THIS BOOKClimate Change and Regional/Local Responses

Understanding climate change requires analysis of its effects in specific contexts, and the case studies in this volume offer examples of such issues. Its chapters cover tropical cyclones in East Asia, study of a fossil in Brazils Araripe Basin and the fractal nature of band-thickness in an iron formation of Canadas Northwest Territories. One chapter examines the presence of trace elements and palynomorphs in the sediments of a tropical urban pond. Examples of technologies used include RS- GIS to map

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  • Author : Roland Stull
  • Publisher : Sundog Publishing, LLC
  • Release : 24 January 2022
GET THIS BOOKPractical Meteorology

A quantitative introduction to atmospheric science for students and professionals who want to understand and apply basic meteorological concepts but who are not ready for calculus.

Statistical Downscaling and Bias Correction for Climate Research

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  • Author : Douglas Maraun,Martin Widmann
  • Publisher : Cambridge University Press
  • Release : 31 January 2018
GET THIS BOOKStatistical Downscaling and Bias Correction for Climate Research

A comprehensive and practical guide, providing technical background and user context for researchers, graduate students, practitioners and decision makers. This book presents the main approaches and describes their underlying assumptions, skill and limitations. Guidelines for the application of downscaling and the use of downscaled information in practice complete the volume.